What are the current odds for Will Yann LeCun be Yann LeCun again? (2020-2030)?

Manifold Markets prices No at 64.9% as of October 29, 2026.

When does Will Yann LeCun be Yann LeCun again? (2020-2030) resolve?

Will Yann LeCun be Yann LeCun again? (2020-2030) is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I really like his recent research on unsupervised vision learning.

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Current community forecast

No 64.9%

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Updated 1 hour ago

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Feb 6, 24, 3:31 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC

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I really like his recent research on unsupervised vision learning.

I will resolve this market based on my opinion in 2030 on if he makes another huge breakthrough
Below are some events that will absolutely resolve this market to YES
Any of his paper published after 2020 gets > 15k citation (No survey/book)
Note: if a big tech releases a SOTA model with his name on it, that paper does not count.
(e.g. he puts his name on llama 3 and that paper got 15k citation)