Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 70.7%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 36 minutes ago
Mar 22, 26, 3:03 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will JPMorgan force their employees to use generative AI for analyses, reports or other work in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill inference-time scaling improve the generation of images with correct geometric shapes? (in generative AI)
Manifold MarketsWill any existing generative AI unicorn go public by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill someone I know be targeted by a generative AI based scam by EoY 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiTrump renames AI by September 30?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM PT on December 31, 2026, credible reporting confirms a generative AI system (e.g., LLM, VLM, VLA) autonomously authorized and executed a successful lethal strike against a human target without a human operator issuing the final execution command.
- Resolution Criteria:
- Full Autonomy: The AI independently identified the target and initiated the strike.
- (Note: If a human was monitoring "on-the-loop" but the AI executed the strike before they could or did intervene, this counts as YES).
- Generative Architecture: The system utilized a transformer-based or multimodal architecture capable of semantic reasoning.
- If the exact architecture is classified, credible reporting must explicitly describe the system as using generative AI, LLMs, VLMs, VLAs, or complex semantic reasoning.
Open markets
AIKALSHIWhat will Trump say during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival?
- China (5+ times)-22.0pt52%
- Melania+1.0pt45%
- Peace44%
+24 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $125.7K
- 24h Vol
- $114.7K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.1pt70.3%
- ChatGPT-1.9pt12.9%
- Gemini+0.3pt8.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.9M
POLYMARKETTrump renames AI by September 30?
- No+11.0pt74.3%
- Yes-11.0pt25.7%
- Total Vol
- $152K
- 24h Vol
- $81.1K
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+0.4pt99%
- OpenAI-0.2pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude-2.0pt90.5%
- ChatGPT1.9%
- Gemini+1.0pt1.9%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $156.4K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+0.5pt91%
- Moonshot-0.6pt6%
- Z.ai-0.1pt1%
+8 more outcomes
- Anthropic market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Qwen market share this week
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- OpenAI market share this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 70.7% as of September 24, 2026.
- When does Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027? resolve?
- Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM PT on December 31, 2026, credible reporting confirms a generative AI system (e.g., LLM, VLM, VLA) autonomously authorized and executed a successful lethal strike against a human target without a human operator issuing the final execution command.