Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 50.6%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleAug 1, 26, 4:23 PM UTCMar 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will we get AGI before 2030?
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PolymarketRules
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.
- Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
- It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
- Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2030
- MOD EDIT (Nov 2, 2025 - @Stralor)
- This market uses In what specific year will we hit AGI? as its baseline.
Open markets
Russia / UkrainePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt76%
- New People (NL)-1.4pt20%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.2pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26.5M
- 24h Vol
- $269.5K
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027-1.0pt14%
- December-1.0pt7%
- September 30,+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhere will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
- No meeting before 2027+0.5pt91.2%
- Qatar / UAE+0.2pt2%
- Switzerland-0.3pt2%
+11 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRussia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
- No+0.1pt99%
- Yes-0.1pt1%
- Total Vol
- $670.5K
- 24h Vol
- $66.1K
POLYMARKETUnited Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
- 325–33937.1%
- 340–354-2.0pt24.7%
- 310–324-2.6pt19.6%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhere will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- China+0.5pt54.9%
- No meeting by December 31-2.5pt33.3%
- Gulf country+0.6pt3.9%
+12 more outcomes
- Bank of Russia decision in September?
- Will Russia capture Bilytske by which date?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by which date?
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will we get AGI before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 51% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will we get AGI before 2030? resolve?
- Will we get AGI before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2030.
- How is Will we get AGI before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.