Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 92%
Forecasters
76
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleJan 9, 24, 11:56 PM UTCMar 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?
Manifold MarketsWill we discover alien life before 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill we discover alien life before 2034?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketRules
Resolves as YES if we discover strong evidence of past or present extra-terrestrial life before January 1st 2030.
- This question includes but is not limited to the detection of biosignatures/technosignatures in our solar system, around other stars or distant galaxies.
- Questions with the same critiera:
- @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-031ec0858fcc
- @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-cbfe304a2ed7
- @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-54f04dd10acb
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $22.1K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000+1.0pt60%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will we discover alien life before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will we discover alien life before 2030? resolve?
- Will we discover alien life before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2030.
- How is Will we discover alien life before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if we discover strong evidence of past or present extra-terrestrial life before January 1st 2030.