Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 86.9%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJan 25, 24, 11:25 PM UTCJan 2, 29, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Donald Trump pardon Vince McMahon?
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Manifold MarketsZhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
PolymarketMaduro Prison Time?
PolymarketRules
At least two years should be available among the answers.
- For example, if there is no resolution by the end of 2027, then a 2029 answer should be split off of "Other", etc. The close date should be extended until a resolution is made.
Open markets
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+17.0pt65%
- Yes-17.0pt35%
- Total Vol
- $404K
- 24h Vol
- $15.4K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $7.9K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 20265%
- Total Vol
- $578.5K
- 24h Vol
- $6.6K
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-6.0pt13%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+0.5pt42.2%
- 60++1.5pt38.2%
- 20–40-0.9pt8.8%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.5pt7%
+3 more outcomes
- Who will be arrested in 2026?
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- What will Brett Kavanaugh say during his Notre Dame Lecture?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions?
- Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Vince McMahon go to prison??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Vince McMahon go to prison? resolve?
- Will Vince McMahon go to prison? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2029.
- How is Will Vince McMahon go to prison? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: At least two years should be available among the answers.