Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 55.6%
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24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
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Updated 18 hours ago
StaleMar 13, 24, 9:26 AM UTCJul 1, 28, 6:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Extropic AI ever have more than 100m revenue in a year through mid 2029?
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PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRules
https://x.com/growing_daniel/status/1767648144848773538
- That is, extropic AI will seem to be on the Theranos path.
- [image]the essential claimed innovation never existed or was never feasible at all.
- It doesn't have to be criminal.
- i.e. they don't have to have faked tests etc but they must have been promoting something which was nothing more than hype, no actual existing technical innovation at all.
- Similarly to how there are zero companies following on Theranos's work, since there was nothing just hope.
