Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJul 17, 26, 4:01 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Thinking Machines acquired by Apple before 2031?
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Manifold MarketsWill Meta or Thinking Machines have a stronger model by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRules
ARR, at any point before 2029.
- If either company is acquired / merged into some other larger company, we'll vibe-resolve with 2029 AI (it will be very smart)
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.4pt71.4%
- ChatGPT-2.6pt13.3%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.1%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $57.8K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-4.0pt88%
- December 15,-1.5pt88%
- November 30,-6.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$900B+10.4pt100%
- ↑$1.0T-4.5pt82%
- ↑$1.25T-4.5pt57%
+12 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- No IPO by December 31, 2026+4.8pt98%
- 1.5T+-1.0pt2%
- <500B-0.1pt0%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+2.0pt91.4%
- Grok+1.0pt1.9%
- Gemini1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $493.7K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude+1.0pt91.7%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt1.9%
- Gemini0.9%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $70.3K
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI IPO by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Most popular AI this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Thinking Machines surpass Anthropic in revenue before 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of September 12, 2026.
- When does Will Thinking Machines surpass Anthropic in revenue before 2029? resolve?
- Will Thinking Machines surpass Anthropic in revenue before 2029? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Will Thinking Machines surpass Anthropic in revenue before 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: ARR, at any point before 2029.