Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.3%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMay 15, 26, 2:12 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence?
Manifold MarketsWill Meta or Thinking Machines have a stronger model by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Thinking Machines surpass Anthropic in revenue before 2029?
Manifold MarketsHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 12, 2026?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Sep 12, 2026?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 18, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 12, 2026?
- 81° to 82°+66.0pt95.2%
- 85° or above-16.0pt1%
- 83° to 84°-42.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $445.9K
- 24h Vol
- $418.2K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 12, 2026?
- Atlanta+11.0pt99%
- Seattle+3.0pt83%
- Washington DC-7.0pt74%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $283.4K
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 18, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,500 or above97%
- $65,500 or above97%
- $68,000 or above97%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $295.2K
- 24h Vol
- $239K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
- 180-199+3.0pt21%
- 160-179+4.0pt20%
- 140-159+4.4pt16%
+23 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+0.9pt97%
- Google-0.9pt2%
- OpenAI-0.3pt1%
+18 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+1.0pt69.9%
- Before March 2027+7.0pt17.5%
- Before February 2027-3.0pt5.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 12, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 13, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 12, 2026?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 12, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 12 - September 14, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 12, 2026?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- Where will it rain on Sep 13, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Denver on Sep 12, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 12, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Atlanta on Sep 12, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Thinking Machines acquired by Apple before 2031??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of September 12, 2026.
- When does Thinking Machines acquired by Apple before 2031? resolve?
- Thinking Machines acquired by Apple before 2031? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.