Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 79.4%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleAug 2, 26, 7:41 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Inkling 2+ (Thinking Machines) release date
Manifold MarketsThinking Machines to top Chatbot Arena by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Thinking Machines Lab close or announce a funding round at a $40B+ valuation by November 15, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI or Google have a stronger model by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 26, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- As judged by Artificial Analysis scores and maybe some combination of other popular meta-benchmarks (ECI, etc.) if there is a tie.
- Resolves YES if the first company is ranked higher and resolves NO if the second company is ranked higher.
