Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 99%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleAug 18, 25, 2:51 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Thinking Machines acquired by Apple before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product?
Manifold MarketsWill Thinking Machines surpass Anthropic in revenue before 2029?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- Resolve YES if Thinking Machines Lab (TML) publicly releases a product before Safe Superintelligence Inc. (SSI) by 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2029; resolve NO if SSI releases first by that deadline; resolve N/A if neither releases by then.
- Public timestamps determine precedence; if exact simultaneous release times cannot be distinguished, resolve N/A. “Product release” means any of: (a) a publicly accessible consumer app or web product; (b) an API/developer platform with public sign‑up or paid access (counts once external users beyond the company are admitted, not at waitlist announcement); (c) an open‑source release of runnable model weights or software with a versioned tag on a public repo; or (d) an App Store/Play Store listing.
- Excludes demos, research papers without runnable code/weights, private NDAs/pilots with a single customer, and fundraising/”we’re building” posts.
- Primary verification sources: official sites/announcements and product pages (TML: https://thinkingmachines.ai/; SSI: https://ssi.inc/), company GitHub/orgs, App Store/Play Store pages, or major tech press with explicit availability and timestamps (e.g., TechCrunch/Reuters).
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.4pt71.4%
- ChatGPT-2.6pt13.3%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.1%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $57.8K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-4.0pt88%
- December 15,-1.5pt88%
- November 30,-6.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$900B+10.4pt100%
- ↑$1.0T-4.5pt82%
- ↑$1.25T-4.5pt57%
+12 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- No IPO by December 31, 2026+4.8pt98%
- 1.5T+-1.0pt2%
- <500B-0.1pt0%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+2.0pt91.4%
- Grok+1.0pt1.9%
- Gemini1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $493.7K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude+1.0pt91.7%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt1.9%
- Gemini0.9%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $70.3K
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI IPO by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Most popular AI this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 99% as of September 12, 2026.
- When does Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence? resolve?
- Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria