Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 65%
Forecasters
93
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingFeb 6, 24, 10:41 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
The outcome is true if by the end of 2030 a public company achieves the market cap of 1 billion dollars while having only one funder and employee.
- Or a one-person private company raises enough money that places it at a valuation above 1B, reported in a reputable news source.
- https://fortune.com/2024/02/04/sam-altman-one-person-unicorn-silicon-valley-founder-myth/
- For the purpose of this market and to ensure that the company is not just a scam,with "enough money" we mean over 10$ million.
- Update 2025-08-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Employee is meant in the legal sense.
- External consultants/contractors are allowed and do not count as employees.
