Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 93.2%
Forecasters
71
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleFeb 12, 24, 8:03 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a single-person funded, owned and operated unicorn before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a one-person unicorn by 2030?
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KalshiBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRules
Will resolve true if there is a company valued at $1b dollars on December 31st 2026, which only has one meaningful human employee.
- If it has human contractors doing a total of more than 40 hours per week, it doesn't count.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $75,000 or above99%
- $75,250 or above99%
- $69,500 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $844.6K
- 24h Vol
- $817.6K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026?
- 200-219+45.0pt95%
- 220-239-11.3pt5%
- 40-590%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
- $68,500 or above97%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+5.0pt27.4%
- 200-219+5.0pt22.6%
- 160-179-4.0pt20.6%
+23 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+4.0pt88.1%
- OpenAI-1.7pt9.9%
- Google-0.2pt2%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+7.5pt55.9%
- 65-89+13.0pt33.3%
- 90-114+1.9pt5.9%
+7 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a single-person unicorn before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be a single-person unicorn before 2027? resolve?
- Will there be a single-person unicorn before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Will there be a single-person unicorn before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will resolve true if there is a company valued at $1b dollars on December 31st 2026, which only has one meaningful human employee.