Will there be a single-person funded, owned and operated unicorn before 2050?
EntertainmentOne-OffBusiness & CorporateManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Aug 24, 25, 7:34 AM UTCDec 31, 49, 11:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
Another manifold market asks whether there will be a single-person operated unicorn company (valuation over 1 billion USD).
- I take it a step further and ask whether it could be entirely self-funded, self-owned, or otherwise an example of “pulling up by one’s bootstraps”.
- I will use my discretion to decide what is valid, therefore I won’t bet on this market.
- Determining valuation for such a company will be tricky, so it may depend on the company being sold or going public.
- I think the closest example currently is Eric Barone, the creator of the video game Stardew Valley, which has had probably somewhere in the 100s of millions of dollars in revenue.