Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 61.9%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 hours ago
StaleAug 6, 25, 10:21 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Since the invention of generative pre-trained transformers in 2018 (later popularized by OpenAI's marketing genius with the release of ChatGPT in 2022), the AI capabilities have been largely stagnant.
- The market resolves YES if there is another significant development (likely a new technology or a discontinuous shift in GPT capabilities) by the end of 2028.
- Update 2025-08-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided additional details on what constitutes a discontinuous shift in GPT capabilities or significant development:
- A discontinuous shift would be an ability to do something beyond autocomplete/stochastic autocomplete
- Current models produce results that get exponentially weaker the farther away from the initial input - if this changed, it would count as significant
- If models become capable of autocompleting with something creative (rather than just averaging from training data), this would be significant
