Will there be a case of paralysis or death attributed to polio in the USA before 2030
One-OffHealth & Medicine3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 68%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleDec 14, 24, 4:28 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a case of polio in the USA this year?
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KalshiRules
Based on official confirmation (CDC, hospital where the case occurred).
- UPDATE 2026-07-12: Only new polio cases acquired after market creation count.
- If that was not clear previously, let me know and I will reimburse your trading losses based on the vague description.
Open markets
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- 24h Vol
- $23.7K
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- Yes+0.6pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $9.3K
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- December 31,+4.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
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POLYMARKETEbola pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
- $4K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
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- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-3.0pt59%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $3.5K
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+1.0pt94.1%
- Yes-1.0pt5.9%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a case of paralysis or death attributed to polio in the USA before 2030?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 68% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will there be a case of paralysis or death attributed to polio in the USA before 2030 resolve?
- Will there be a case of paralysis or death attributed to polio in the USA before 2030 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will there be a case of paralysis or death attributed to polio in the USA before 2030 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Based on official confirmation (CDC, hospital where the case occurred).