Will the US Justice Department or a major outlet confirm “The Duke” in Epstein files is not Prince Andrew?
Crime & JusticeOne-Off5moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 68.4%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleFeb 8, 26, 4:05 PM UTCFeb 7, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- The Epstein files released by the Department of Justice include email exchanges between Epstein and a contact listed as "The Duke," which is believed to refer to Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor (formerly Prince Andrew).
- This market resolves YES if the US Justice Department or a major news outlet (defined as outlets with national/international reach and editorial standards, such as AP, Reuters, BBC, NPR, CNN, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Guardian, or equivalent) officially confirms that "The Duke" in the Epstein files refers to someone other than Prince Andrew.
- This market resolves NO if no such confirmation is made by February 8, 2027, or if official sources continue to identify "The Duke" as Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor.
- Resolution will be determined by checking the DOJ's official Epstein Library at https://www.justice.gov/epstein and statements from major news outlets covering the Epstein files.
- Email exchanges between Epstein and an account named "The Duke" are signed "A" with the words "HRH The Duke of York KG" at the bottom — suggesting that the sender is Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, who was known as Prince Andrew and the Duke of York before he was recently barred from using the titles.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US Justice Department or a major outlet confirm “The Duke” in Epstein files is not Prince Andrew??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 68% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will the US Justice Department or a major outlet confirm “The Duke” in Epstein files is not Prince Andrew? resolve?
- Will the US Justice Department or a major outlet confirm “The Duke” in Epstein files is not Prince Andrew? is scheduled to resolve on February 7, 2027.
- How is Will the US Justice Department or a major outlet confirm “The Duke” in Epstein files is not Prince Andrew? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria