Will the US implement a policy for rapid shutdown of large compute clusters and training runs by 2028?
AIOne-OffRegulationTech2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:17 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 52.5%
Yes 52.5%Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleApr 28, 23, 1:56 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to yes if the US creates a policy by 2028 that requires the implementation of rapid shutdown mechanisms for large compute clusters and training runs.
- These mechanisms could include non-networked power cutoff switches for large compute clusters or remote shutdown systems on chips, with the goal of enabling swift response in emergency situations.
- Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.
