Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?
YearlyMacro & EconomyAI2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 55%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleDec 27, 23, 4:20 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
The Gini index is one of the most basic inequalities agregation measure.
- The resolution will be based on OECD data, https://data.oecd.org/inequality/income-inequality.htm The US in the recent years have been hovering between 0.39 and 0.40 with a small decrease in 2020/2021 and got back to 0.395 in 2022.
- World bank data and OECD data do not agree on the value in the recent years, the world bank (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=US) puts the all time high at 0.415 in 2014 while OECD puts it at 0.396 in 2013, which may be coming from different methodologies.
- Arbitrary, the OECD data has been chosen for resolution.
- In any case, an index of 0.43 is unseen in the modern history of the US (at least since 1960)
