Will the top model by OpenAI rank 3rd (or lower) behind 2 other model families at any point before 2026?

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: Yes (89.3%)

Resolved: Nov 19, 2025, 2:37 PM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

Yes 89.3%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 204 days ago

Stale

Sep 15, 24, 1:48 AMNov 19, 25, 2:37 PM

Probability Timeline

Yes89.3%

No10.7%

Yes

89.3%

10.7%

Rules

Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.

Will the top model by OpenAI rank 3rd (or lower) behind 2 other model families at any point before 2026?

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: Yes (89.3%)

Resolved: Nov 19, 2025, 2:37 PM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

Yes 89.3%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 204 days ago

Stale

Sep 15, 24, 1:48 AMNov 19, 25, 2:37 PM

Probability Timeline

Yes89.3%

No10.7%

Yes

89.3%

10.7%

Rules

Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will the top model by OpenAI rank 3rd (or lower) behind 2 other model families at any point before 2026??: Manifold Markets prices Yes at 89% as of January 29, 2026.
When does Will the top model by OpenAI rank 3rd (or lower) behind 2 other model families at any point before 2026? resolve?: Will the top model by OpenAI rank 3rd (or lower) behind 2 other model families at any point before 2026? is scheduled to resolve on November 19, 2025.

Will the top model by OpenAI rank 3rd (or lower) behind 2 other model families at any point before 2026?

Will the top model by OpenAI rank 3rd (or lower) behind 2 other model families at any point before 2026?

Frequently asked questions

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