Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 90%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJun 2, 26, 1:32 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Americans rate the economy positively before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Fredie Mac US 30-year fixed-rate average drop below 5.75% before Nov 1, 2026.
Manifold MarketsDrop in India’s S&P long-term credit rating in 2026?
FutuurIn 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%?
Manifold MarketsVisitors to Florida in 2026
KalshiWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the seasonally adjusted U.S. Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) drops below 61.5% (i.e., is reported as 61.4% or lower) for any monthly reporting period in the calendar year 2026 (January 2026 through December 2026).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Source of Truth: The primary source of truth is the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly "Employment Situation" report.
- Specifically, this is the seasonally adjusted series LNS11300000, which can also be tracked on FRED under the series name CIVPART.
- Revisions: The market will resolve based on the values published for each month of 2026 as of the release of the December 2026 data (typically published in early January 2027), including any retroactive revisions to the 2026 months published up to that date.
Open markets
Macro & EconomyKALSHIVisitors to Florida in 2026
- Above 136 million97%
- Above 138 million-2.0pt94%
- Above 140 million+3.0pt80%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.7K
- 24h Vol
- $59.4K
KALSHIWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes8%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $20.8K
KALSHIHow high will the Nikkei 225 get in 2026?
- At least ¥73,000-35.0pt30%
- At least ¥74,000-40.0pt27%
- At least ¥80,00024%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $19.6K
KALSHIPort of New York and New Jersey container volume in 2026
- Above 8.4 million TEUs95%
- Above 8.6 million TEUs+4.0pt85%
- Above 8.7 million TEUs+3.0pt73%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $66.1K
KALSHICzech National Bank rate decision in September
- Maintain current rate+5.0pt92.4%
- Hike 25bps-6.0pt1.9%
- Cut 50bps1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $51.2K
KALSHIWill the S&P finish positive this year?
- Yes88%
- No12%
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $10K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 90% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026? resolve?
- Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria