Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 99%
Forecasters
108
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jan 2, 24, 9:09 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who gets the Millennium Prize for solving Navier-Stokes?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the Navier-Stokes problem be solved?
Manifold MarketsWill the Navier-Stokes problem be solved before 2028?
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PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiRules
as per the Clay Mathematics Institute:
- Prove or give a counter-example of the following statement:
- In three space dimensions and time, given an initial velocity field, there exists a vector velocity and a scalar pressure field, which are both smooth and globally defined, that solve the Navier–Stokes equations.
- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navier%E2%80%93Stokes_existence_and_smoothness
- This market resolves to YES if the Clay Mathematics Institute (or equivalent organization) agrees that the Navier-Stokes problem has been solved, whether that be proved or disproved as per above by the end of 2030.
- Otherwise this market resolves to NO.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.0pt94%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+15.3pt47%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $256.6K
- 24h Vol
- $140.5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2032+44.0pt92%
- Before 2028+44.0pt59%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
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- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Navier-Stokes problem be solved by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 99% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the Navier-Stokes problem be solved by 2030? resolve?
- Will the Navier-Stokes problem be solved by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Will the Navier-Stokes problem be solved by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: as per the Clay Mathematics Institute: