Will the leaked OpenAI "GPT 5.6 Sol" proof that nonsofic groups exist be verified as correct?
AIOne-Off10moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 97.6%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleAug 1, 26, 6:35 AM UTCAug 1, 27, 6:31 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if:
- A paper or preprint containing the claimed proof is made public, AND
- Within the market window, expert consensus accepts the proof as correct — operationalized as any of: (a) publication/acceptance in a peer-reviewed venue, (b) a complete formalization in a proof assistant (e.g. Lean) verified end-to-end, or (c) public endorsement of correctness by at least three recognized researchers in sofic groups / group approximation theory (e.g. people with published work in the area) with no credible unresolved objection outstanding.
- Resolves NO if:
- A fatal, unpatched error is identified and acknowledged, or the claim is retracted, OR
- No paper materializes and the claim is walked back or abandoned, OR
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the leaked OpenAI "GPT 5.6 Sol" proof that nonsofic groups exist be verified as correct??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the leaked OpenAI "GPT 5.6 Sol" proof that nonsofic groups exist be verified as correct? resolve?
- Will the leaked OpenAI "GPT 5.6 Sol" proof that nonsofic groups exist be verified as correct? is scheduled to resolve on August 1, 2027.
- How is Will the leaked OpenAI "GPT 5.6 Sol" proof that nonsofic groups exist be verified as correct? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if: