Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?
AIOne-Off3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 82.9%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleAug 19, 25, 9:10 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
BASELINE (2025 leader): The current leader as of Aug 2025 appears to be GPT-4.5 with ~90.2% on MMLU, with Claude 4 and Gemini 2.5 Pro at ~85-86%
- Top 7 LLMs Ranked in 2025: GPT-4o, Gemini, Claude & More.
- To establish the 2025 baseline:
- On Dec 31, 2025, identify the LLM with the highest average score across the "Core Benchmark Suite" (defined below)
- This becomes the baseline for calculating 10% improvement
- CORE BENCHMARK SUITE (to avoid cherry-picking):
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
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- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
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+7 more outcomes
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- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
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- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? resolve?
- Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: BASELINE (2025 leader): The current leader as of Aug 2025 appears to be GPT-4.5 with ~90.2% on MMLU, with Claude 4 and Gemini 2.5 Pro at ~85-86%