Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 82.9% as of October 25, 2026.

When does Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? resolve?

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.

How is Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: BASELINE (2025 leader): The current leader as of Aug 2025 appears to be GPT-4.5 with ~90.2% on MMLU, with Claude 4 and Gemini 2.5 Pro at ~85-86%

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Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

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KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+4.3pt52.8%
• Gemini-1.8pt35.8%
• ChatGPT-1.1pt7.6%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$15.4M

24h Vol

$76.9K

POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 2029+1.0pt20%
• 2028+1.0pt16%
• 2027+1.0pt8%

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+2.0pt92.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202791.5%
• Before Feb 1, 202788.5%

KALSHI

OpenRouter AI token usage in October

• Above 600T tokens50%
• Above 675T tokens+16.0pt99.5%
• Above 650T tokens+33.0pt99.5%

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+2.0pt30.4%
• $1.5–$1.75T+0.6pt18.6%
• $2.0–$2.25T-2.0pt17.6%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?

• 2027-4.0pt56%
• 2026-1.5pt14%

+1 more outcomes

Total Vol

$1M

24h Vol

$46.5K

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