Current community forecast
Yes 72.6%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleOct 6, 22, 1:13 PM UTCJan 14, 35, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
As this article (https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/05/27/1052826/ai-reinforcement-learning-self-driving-cars-autonomous-vehicles-wayve-waabi-cruise/) describes, first generation self-driving companies like Waymo and Cruise have (seemingly) doubled down on having the interface between perception, planning, and control be modular and are continuing to use HD maps combined with LIDAR for driving.
- On the other hand, companies like Wayve and comma.ai are shooting for an end-to-end learned approach where perception translates directly to control using RL or something similar.
- Tesla falls somewhere in the middle but currently seems to be in the former category.
- This question will resolve to "Yes" if a company clearly using the latter approach is the first to deploy self-driving cars in 50 cities.
- It will also resolve to "Yes" if one of the companies in the former group pivots approaches and uses mostly or entirely end-to-end approaches in their deployed production systems.
- It resolves to "No" if a member of the former category reaches 50 cities without changing their approach.