Current community forecast
Yes 90.6%
Forecasters
56
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleDec 26, 23, 7:45 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:54 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will 2026 be the year of the Linux desktop?
Manifold MarketsWill any state in the USA ban self driving cars by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be self driving taxis in London, UK by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
For decades, people have talked about the "year of the Linux desktop", with non-specific criteria but generally a subjective impression that Linux is ready for mainstream use.
- For years, people have talked about self-driving cars being right around the corner.
- This market resolves YES if reliable self-driving cars are generally available (e.g. summonable for a ride by anyone in a large-scale market such as a country or several entire states of a country, not a 1-2 city trial) before Linux reaches 10% desktop market share (by some reasonably objective metric).
- This market resolves NO if Linux reaches 10% desktop computer market share before reliable self-driving cars are generally available.
- I expect to extend this market's close date if neither condition occurs.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop resolve?
- Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: For decades, people have talked about the "year of the Linux desktop", with non-specific criteria but generally a subjective impression that Linux is ready for mainstream use.