Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 99%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 6, 26, 7:06 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 8:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if 2026 is widely recognized as "the year of the Linux desktop", citing significant milestones such as:
- Global desktop market share reaching or exceeding 10%
- Mainstream adoption breakthroughs in major regions
- Significant shifts in user migration from Windows/macOS
- Industry consensus on Linux achieving mainstream viability
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
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- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will 2026 be the year of the Linux desktop??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will 2026 be the year of the Linux desktop? resolve?
- Will 2026 be the year of the Linux desktop? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will 2026 be the year of the Linux desktop? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria