Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 63.4%
Forecasters
69
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleApr 18, 24, 4:09 PM UTCFeb 1, 40, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsBy the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Opus released on?
PolymarketTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
AGI strictly refers to strong AI that surpasses or matches humans at every task.
- Any architecture that primarily relies on using next-token prediction, such as GPT 4 or Claude 3 would count as an LLM.
- Update 2026-08-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Agentic wrappers and harnesses (such as those handling tool calls, context management, or preloaded skills) do not prevent a system from counting as an LLM.
- The architecture will still be considered as relying on next-token prediction if its core intelligence is derived from the underlying model.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+56.5pt74.1%
- September 23+6.8pt10.2%
- September 24+0.9pt5.6%
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $311.3K
- 24h Vol
- $224.5K
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-3.0pt28%
- Mark Carney20%
- Donald Trump-1.0pt10%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5.1M
- 24h Vol
- $120.4K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt69.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.7%
- Gemini-1.7pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.8M
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.3pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $97.5K
- 24h Vol
- $74.8K
- Best AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) released on?
- Anthropic market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the first AGI be a large language model??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 63.4% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Will the first AGI be a large language model? resolve?
- Will the first AGI be a large language model? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2040.
- How is Will the first AGI be a large language model? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: AGI strictly refers to strong AI that surpasses or matches humans at every task.