Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 75.6%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 26 minutes ago
Feb 3, 25, 5:39 AM UTCSep 1, 30, 8:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
The Dallas Mavericks yesterday traded their superstar franchise player Luka Doncic, alongside Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris to the LA Lakers for Anthony Davis, Max Christie and a 2029 FRP.
- This move has been widely considered as a shocking, franchise-alteringly bad move and maybe the worst trade in sports history - but could it actually pan out? This market is my subjective attempt to measure that.
- For the purposes of this market, Dallas will be considered to have "won" the trade if any of this happens before the start of the 2030-2031 NBA championship:
- The Mavs win an NBA championship with AD as a key member of the team (top 2 in playoffs PPG for his team)
- The Mavs reach 60% odds to win the NBA title at any point during the playoffs on Polymarket, even if they eventually don't win (this would be better than Luka did)
- AD wins MVP or (DPOY and first team All NBA)
