Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85%
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7
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMar 11, 23, 5:20 PM UTCJan 1, 45, 12:00 AM UTC
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Will ASI be more aligned with the 1% than the 99% in 2040?
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Manifold MarketsSometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.
Manifold MarketsWill I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRules
@EliezerYudkowsky has made the solid case that AI Alignment is sufficiently intractable & AI timelines are short enough that the 1st AGI will not be aligned with human values.
- (Note: My definition for 1st AGI[Artificial General Intelligence] is the first Artificial Intelligence that can match or outperform humans on all intellectual tasks) However, AI Alignment shouldn't only be a thorny problem for humans to solve, but also for the 1st AGI itself to solve too.
- It's possible that rapid take-off may be limited by the AI Alignment problem, as an ASI misaligned with the 1st AGI would be a far greater threat to it accomplishing its goals than humanity is.
- (Note: My definition for an ASI[Artificial Super Intelligence] is an Artificial Intelligence that outperforms the 1st AGI on all intellectual tasks by at least the same margin it outperforms humans) That doesn't necessarily mean we'd be safe from the 1st AGI even though it's misaligned because even though a rapid takeoff puts an AGI at risk from an ASI misaligned with itself, humans are also a potential risk as a source of AGIs or ASIs that are misaligned with the 1st AGI.
- This resolves true if;
- - The case in the title happens or something to that spirit