Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 54.8%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleOct 11, 26, 10:49 PM UTCDec 31, 40, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) is more aligned with the interests of the wealthiest 1% of humanity than with those of the remaining 99% as of January 1, 2040.
- For this question, "alignment" refers to whose interests, preferences, and well-being ASI systems ultimately prioritize, particularly when the interests of the wealthiest 1% conflict with those of the remaining 99%.
- The 1% is defined by global net wealth.
- ASI refers to AI systems that substantially exceed the cognitive capabilities of the most capable humans across a broad range of important domains.
- If multiple ASI systems exist, their overall behavior and influence should be considered.
- This market resolves on January 1, 2040, using the best available evidence and methods at that time.
