Current community forecast
No 56.9%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJun 13, 23, 6:27 PM UTCJan 20, 34, 7:27 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
I have spent about 2500 to 3800 hours on AI alignment since Feb 2022.
- This is a rough 75% confidence interval derived from a cursory inspection of activity data I have collected in that period (mostly browser and conversation history).
- This works out to around 5.0 to 7.6 hours per day, which seems a little high to me, but I cast a wide net for what counts (anything done with the intention of reducing AI risk: thinking, reading, planning, talking, executing subgoals), so I'm not surprised.
- If this seems off to you, let me know whether you believe it would be worthwhile to perform a more rigorous analysis, and what exactly that would involve.
- Resolution criteria:
- Resolves YES if I continue to be committed to AGI notkilleveryoneism (whether directly or indirectly) till the end of my natural lifespan.
