Conditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs?
AIOne-OffRegulation
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 59%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleDec 25, 23, 10:10 PM UTCDec 31, 50, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
If we solve alignment, we still have to make sure that people create aligned AIs and don't create unaligned AIs - at least, don't create unaligned AIs beyond a certain level of "power".
- This seems hard!
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Conditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 59% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Conditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs? resolve?
- Conditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2050.
- How is Conditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If we solve alignment, we still have to make sure that people create aligned AIs and don't create unaligned AIs - at least, don't create unaligned AIs beyond a certain level of "power".