Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.9%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 14, 26, 7:52 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Jacob Coxon publicly testify before congress by October 31?
PolymarketJacob Coxon Will Appear on the All-In Podcast with the Besties
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketTencent market share this week
KalshiRules
Two Jacob Co??n’s in AI safety — It hasn’t happened yet, but I feel like it’s bound to…
- Resolves YES if this unambiguously happened (eg someone sending me an email that was clearly meant for Jacob Coxon).
- Resolves 50% if it’s something more marginal / unclear (like if someone misspeaks).
- Resolves NO if I have no evidence this happened by the end of the month.
- I will be excluding any efforts that I suspect were done to manipulate this market.
- General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt68.3%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt13.5%
- Gemini+1.6pt10.6%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.5M
- 24h Vol
- $100.2K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-13.5pt65%
- November 30,-11.0pt50%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $262.3K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+13.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+30.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%+1.0pt99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25.3%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt20%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.8%
+7 more outcomes
- Anthropic market share this week
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best AI this week
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will someone confuse me (Jacob Cohen) with Jacob Coxon during the month of September??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will someone confuse me (Jacob Cohen) with Jacob Coxon during the month of September? resolve?
- Will someone confuse me (Jacob Cohen) with Jacob Coxon during the month of September? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Will someone confuse me (Jacob Cohen) with Jacob Coxon during the month of September? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Two Jacob Co??n’s in AI safety — It hasn’t happened yet, but I feel like it’s bound to…