Data quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Jul 27, 2026, 2:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Claude 67%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
22 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
-
Market data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Mar 4, 26, 11:46 AMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Claude67%
Compare venues· Claude
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall93% match · auto | High | 63% | 0pt | $16.9K | $4.7M | 20 minutes ago | Open → |
 GeminiThis page | Low | 67% | +4pt | $0 | $0 | 20 minutes ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Best AI at the end of 2026?
5mo
+0.4pt62.4%
+0.7pt14.8%
-0.1pt10.9%
+5 more outcomes
89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$7.6M
24h Vol$16.9K
KALSHIRules
Best AI at the end of 2026?
- If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Otherwise, it resolves to No.
- Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls).
- If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.4k97.9%KALSHIMuse Spark — No4d ago
KALSHIMuse Spark — No4d ago$1.3k86.5%KALSHIChatGPT — No7d ago
KALSHIChatGPT — No7d ago$1.3k87.3%KALSHIGemini — No12d ago
KALSHIGemini — No12d ago$1.2k92.6%KALSHIGrok — No18d ago
KALSHIGrok — No18d agoRelated Markets
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$49.7KAnthropic: 99%
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POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
$11.7K1510: 56%POLYMARKET
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Best Chinese AI Company this week
$7.7KMoonshot: 1%KALSHI
KALSHI
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?
$7KBy Dec 31, 2025: 74%
MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Top Coding AI this week
$4.7KKimi: 99%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
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Best AI at the end of 2026?
- If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Otherwise, it resolves to No.
- Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls).
- If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win.