Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Claude 59.7%Leader of 7 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$6.3K
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadTraders
0
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleMar 4, 26, 11:46 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
59.7%
20.9%
7.7%
7.7%
1.5%
1.5%
1%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Best AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of October?
PolymarketSecond-best AI Agent Lab end of October?
PolymarketBest AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR?
Manifold MarketsWhich company will have the best AI model at the end of 2026?
FutuurRules
Best AI at the end of 2026?
- If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls).
- If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+12.5pt89%
- 2026+22.0pt71%
- September 30, 2026+19.0pt43%
- Total Vol
- $145.2K
- 24h Vol
- $62K
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture+8.0pt42.9%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer-1.0pt25.7%
- Yang-Mills+13.8pt15.2%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+33.0pt90%
- 2026+40.0pt72%
- September 30, 2026+21.0pt35%
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-23.0pt38%
- 2027-1.0pt17%
- 2026-1.0pt6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt62.8%
- ChatGPT-0.2pt20.6%
- Gemini-0.9pt6.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.7M
- Anthropic market share this week
- Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- Tencent market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI market share this week
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Best AI at the end of 2026??
- Gemini prices Claude at 60% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Best AI at the end of 2026? resolve?
- Best AI at the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Best AI at the end of 2026? settled?
- Gemini settles this market as follows: Best AI at the end of 2026?
- Where else is Best AI at the end of 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Futuur, Polymarket.