Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 86.9%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleOct 15, 26, 3:14 AM UTCNov 16, 26, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if, between market creation and November 15, 2026 11:59 PM Pacific, OpenAI makes a new language model available to the public in ChatGPT, the OpenAI API, or Codex.
- "New" means a model name or version that was not publicly available before this market opened (October 15, 2026).
- For example, a GPT-6.2 model, a new mini/nano or Codex variant with its own name, a new open-weight model, or a successor to Astra.
- Any text or coding model with a new name, including mini, nano, Pro and Codex variants.
- A public preview or a paid-tier-only release, as long as ordinary paying users or API customers can use it.
- New open-weight language models that OpenAI releases publicly.
