Current community forecast
No 91.1%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleJul 1, 26, 12:09 AM UTCSep 25, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if OpenAI keeps the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026, or officially announces before resolution that the September 24, 2026 shutdown/removal has been postponed beyond that date.
- Count as YES: - OpenAI official API docs, deprecation docs, status/docs pages, or an official announcement say the Videos API, Sora API, `sora-2`, `sora-2-pro`, or the listed Sora 2 snapshots remain available to developers after September 24, 2026. - OpenAI explicitly extends the scheduled removal date past September 24, 2026.
- Count as NO: - The Videos API / Sora API / Sora 2 API access is removed on or before September 24, 2026 with no official extension. - OpenAI releases a separate video-generation product or model, but the Sora/Videos API named in the deprecation notice is not kept available and no official extension is announced. - Only the old Sora web/app content export path remains available; this market is about developer API availability, not the discontinued Sora app/web experience.
- Resolve from official OpenAI documentation, status pages, or announcements when possible; use reputable secondary reporting only if official pages are unavailable or contradictory.
- If OpenAI changes names, use substance over branding: the question is whether the scheduled Sora/Videos developer API shutdown is extended or avoided, not whether any unrelated video product exists.
- Current source context at creation: OpenAI Help says Sora web/app experiences were discontinued on April 26, 2026 and the Sora API will be discontinued on September 24, 2026.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will OpenAI keep the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will OpenAI keep the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026? resolve?
- Will OpenAI keep the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on September 25, 2026.
- How is Will OpenAI keep the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if OpenAI keeps the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026, or officially announces before resolution that the September 24, 2026 shutdown/removal has been postponed beyond that date.