Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMar 7, 24, 3:55 AM UTCJan 2, 40, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will OpenAI be one of the top 5 most valuable companies before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI be one of the top 10 most valuable public companies in the world at the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketOpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?
PolymarketOpenAI’s valuation end of November 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolves yes if OpenAI has a valuation (from a funding round etc.) or market cap greater than Microsoft at any point before Jan. 1st 2040.
- If the corporate structure of either company changes, the question will not necessarily resolve to No. I will lean towards counting any new structures the same as the old ones if they broadly contain similar AI assets/capabilities.
