Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMar 7, 24, 3:55 AM UTCJan 2, 40, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will OpenAI be one of the top 5 most valuable companies before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI be one of the top 10 most valuable public companies in the world at the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsBitcoin more valuable than any company before 2027?
PolymarketAlphabet becomes the most valuable company in the world by end of 2026
Manifold MarketsAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketMicrosoft’s Market Cap end of 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolves yes if OpenAI has a valuation (from a funding round etc.) or market cap greater than Microsoft at any point before Jan. 1st 2040.
- If the corporate structure of either company changes, the question will not necessarily resolve to No. I will lean towards counting any new structures the same as the old ones if they broadly contain similar AI assets/capabilities.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will OpenAI be more valuable than Microsoft before 2040??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 72% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will OpenAI be more valuable than Microsoft before 2040? resolve?
- Will OpenAI be more valuable than Microsoft before 2040? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2040.
- How is Will OpenAI be more valuable than Microsoft before 2040? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves yes if OpenAI has a valuation (from a funding round etc.) or market cap greater than Microsoft at any point before Jan. 1st 2040.