Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 15, 2026, 5:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 5.1%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 days ago
StaleDec 21, 22, 3:55 PMDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes5%
Volume trend
$532Jul 142d of dataJul 15
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