Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 57.2%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 29 minutes ago
Mar 14, 26, 5:29 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Spain have a bullfighting ban in effect by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsUK social media ban in effect by which date?
PolymarketVenezuela leader end of 2026?
PolymarketFall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate
Polymarket🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027
Manifold MarketsRules
not just pass a ban, but also have it in effect
- has to be national level
