Current community forecast
Yes 64.3%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 28, 26, 1:35 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 4:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which app will be #1 on Apple's US free iPhone chart on October 24, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhere will the Claude app rank on Apple's US free iPhone chart on October 23, 2026?
Manifold Markets#2 Spotify song in the US this week? (October 9)
Polymarket#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9?
Polymarket#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9?
Polymarket#2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 9?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if Muse from Meta is ranked #1 on Apple's US App Store Top Free iPhone Apps chart on October 31, 2026.
- How it's checked: Apple's official public chart feed, https://rss.marketingtools.apple.com/api/v2/us/apps/top-free/10/apps.json.
- The first snapshot whose updated timestamp is at or after 17:00 UTC on October 31, 2026 decides it.
- If the feed is unavailable, the App Store app's Top Charts → Free (US, iPhone) seen on that date decides it, confirmed by a public screenshot or a chart tracker (e.g. appfigures, Sensor Tower).
- Only the overall Top Free iPhone chart counts.
- Category charts (Productivity, etc.), Top Paid, and iPad charts don't count.
