Current community forecast
No 71%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleAug 25, 26, 3:59 AM UTCOct 16, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Levent Alpöge (Harvard), working with Claude, circulated a ~108-page PDF claiming a construction of an integrable complex structure on S⁶ — the Hopf problem, open since 1947.
- As of market creation the paper is circulating as a PDF outside arXiv; his most recent arXiv submission is "More than two thirds of the zeta zeros are simple and on the critical line" (2026-08-13), and his July 2026 Jacobian-conjecture counterexample is not on arXiv either.
- This market is about the posting, not the correctness.
- Resolves YES if, at any time from market creation through 2026-10-15, 23:59 ET, arxiv.org lists a preprint (any version, any primary category) with Levent Alpöge as an author whose subject is the existence of a complex / integrable complex structure on the 6-sphere.
- Resolves NO otherwise — including if the paper only ever circulates as a personal-website or social-media PDF, is submitted to a journal without an arXiv posting, is withdrawn, or appears on arXiv without Alpöge as an author.
- Oracle: the arXiv listing itself — https://arxiv.org/a/alpoge_l_1 and arXiv full-text search.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 71% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026? resolve?
- Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on October 16, 2026.
- How is Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Levent Alpöge (Harvard), working with Claude, circulated a ~108-page PDF claiming a construction of an integrable complex structure on S⁶ — the Hopf problem, open since 1947.