Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 51.1%
Forecasters
55
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleFeb 5, 24, 6:33 PM UTCFeb 13, 29, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will happen before King Charles III dies? [Add Answers!]
Manifold MarketsWhen will King Charles III die?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will King Charles III visit in 2026?
Manifold MarketsFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
PolymarketSkin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by which date?
PolymarketEbola pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRules
King Charles III was recently diagnosed with cancer, as per a press release from Buckingham Palace (https://www.royal.uk/a-statement-from-buckingham-palace-5Feb24)
- Also here: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-68208157.amp
- Survival in cancer is typically considered if the patient survives 5 years after the initial diagnosis.
- Clarifications:
- 1) If King Charles dies of any causes in the 5 years after the diagnosis, market will resolve No. 2) If the date of diagnosis is made public, that will be the start date.
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $22.1K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000+1.0pt60%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will King Charles survive his cancer diagnosis??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 51% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will King Charles survive his cancer diagnosis? resolve?
- Will King Charles survive his cancer diagnosis? is scheduled to resolve on February 13, 2029.
- How is Will King Charles survive his cancer diagnosis? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: King Charles III was recently diagnosed with cancer, as per a press release from Buckingham Palace (https://www.royal.uk/a-statement-from-buckingham-palace-5Feb24)