Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 99%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJan 13, 26, 1:17 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Iran's official government name is formally changed to "Persia" at any point during 2026.
- Resolution requires official documentation from Iran's government or international bodies (UN, etc.) recognizing the name change.
- The market resolves NO if no such official change occurs by December 31, 2026.
- In 1935, Reza Shah Pahlavi officially requested that foreign delegates begin using the endonym "Iran" in formal correspondence, and subsequently "Iran" and "Iranian" were standardised as the terms referring to the country and its citizens.
- Iran's official name since 1979 is Jomhuri-ye Eslāmi-ye Irān, which translates as the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Open markets
Middle East
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.9M
- 24h Vol
- $807.7K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIAl Qadsiah vs Al Ahli Saudi
- Al Qadsiah+21.0pt68.6%
- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-17.0pt10.8%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $125K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.5K
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Netanyahu out by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iran change it's name to Persia in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Iran change it's name to Persia in 2026? resolve?
- Will Iran change it's name to Persia in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Iran change it's name to Persia in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria