Will Holden Karnofsky (Open Philanthropy, GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Crime & JusticeOne-Off3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.5%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJan 15, 23, 5:20 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that Holden Karnofsky (Open Philanthropy, GiveWell) has been criminally charged with any felony crime.
- Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030.
- Part of a large question series.
- Question is global -- charges in any country count.
- Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if he was found not guilty.
- Minor misdemeanors do not count, only more serious (i.e. "felony") charges.
