Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 78.5%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 27 minutes ago
Jan 3, 26, 3:51 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Wikipedia article "X (social media platform)" no longer redirect to "Twitter" on December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWikipedia's article on xAi's successor to Grokipedia under title Encyclopedia Galactica by Christmas eve 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2007088281507488174
- Resolves YES if at any point before EOY 2026, the articles available on Grokipedia exceed the amount of articles on Wikipedia's English site.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- In the unlikely event that either Grokipedia or Wikipedia shuts down, this market will be marked as N/A. Update 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Grokipedia and English Wikipedia have exactly the same number of articles at any point before EOY 2026, this does not count as surpassing and the market will resolve NO.
- Update 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Article counts will be determined using exact numbers unless the exact count is unavailable, in which case the creator will use the most accurate count available.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Grokipedia surpass English Wikipedia in article count by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 79% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Grokipedia surpass English Wikipedia in article count by EOY 2026? resolve?
- Will Grokipedia surpass English Wikipedia in article count by EOY 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Grokipedia surpass English Wikipedia in article count by EOY 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2007088281507488174