Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77.6%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleDec 29, 25, 11:49 PM UTCDec 29, 26, 11:49 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Grokipedia surpass English Wikipedia in article count by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsIn 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?
Manifold MarketsWill NYT write an article about a scandal at 80,000 Hours, before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiRules
Main article, not talk page or internal page.
- Reference must remain for at least 1 month.
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35.8K
- 24h Vol
- $20.9K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Total Vol
- $10.2K
- 24h Vol
- $9K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $17.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Total Vol
- $158.5K
- 24h Vol
- $487.1
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- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
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- Is Earth flat?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 78% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028? resolve?
- Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 29, 2026.
- How is Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Main article, not talk page or internal page.