Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 99%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleJul 11, 26, 8:51 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if OpenAI officially releases a model explicitly named "GPT-6" (or clearly designated under the "GPT-6" family name, such as "GPT-6 Sol") for public use, developer preview, or API access on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
- Source of Truth: Resolution will be verified using official announcements from the OpenAI Blog or the official OpenAI X (formerly Twitter) account.
- Alternative Naming: If OpenAI releases their next-generation frontier model under an entirely different brand name (e.g., bypassing the "GPT" brand entirely) but officially declares it to be their "GPT-6-equivalent" or "sixth-generation flagship model," this market may resolve to YES at the creator's discretion.
- Exclusions: Releases of incremental GPT-5 variants (such as GPT-5.5, GPT-5.6, or potential future iterations like GPT-5.7) or specialized domain models (such as GPT-Rosalind) will not trigger a YES resolution.
- If no such model is released by the deadline, the market will resolve to NO.