Current community forecast
No 52%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 8:15 PM UTCOct 14, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Google makes its Gemini 4 Argon model publicly available to individual developers or consumers on or before October 14, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- To qualify as publicly available, ordinary individual users must be able to obtain access without being individually selected, invited, vetted, or approved by Google.
- Qualified access pathways include:
- Developer Access: Available via Google AI Studio, the Gemini API, or Google Cloud Vertex AI for any registered developer.