Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)
AIOne-Off8y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 52.1%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJan 18, 25, 8:28 PM UTCFeb 18, 35, 3:59 AM UTC
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Eliezer Yudkowsky, a prominent AI researcher and rationalist, has made public bets regarding UFOs, expressing skepticism about their extraterrestrial origin.
- His current stance on UFOs is rooted in skepticism of the extraterrestrial hypothesis, arguing that any advanced civilization capable of interstellar travel would likely be superintelligent and would have already had a visible impact on Earth.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES if, within one year after losing his UFO bet, Eliezer Yudkowsky makes public statements (via blog posts, social media, interviews, or other public forums) explicitly connecting or attributing the UFO phenomenon to artificial intelligence or AI-related technology.
- The market will resolve NO if:
- Yudkowsky does not make such associations within the one-year timeframe
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 52% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins) resolve?
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins) is scheduled to resolve on February 18, 2035.
- How is Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Eliezer Yudkowsky, a prominent AI researcher and rationalist, has made public bets regarding UFOs, expressing skepticism about their extraterrestrial origin.