Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.1%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJun 8, 26, 4:26 PM UTCDec 31, 33, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Demis Hassabis's net worth exceed $3 billion USD by December 31, 2027?
Manifold MarketsDemis Hassabis still at Google end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsBy when will Demis Hassabis leave Google?
Manifold MarketsNobel Prize in Literature: 2026
KalshiNobel Prize in Economics 2026
Kalshi2026 Nobel Physics winner?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Sir Demis Hassabis is officially announced as a recipient of the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, either individually or jointly.
- The official source of truth is the Nobel Prize announcement page: https://www.nobelprize.org/
- The market will resolve to NO if he has not been awarded the prize by the market's closing date.
- In 2024, Demis Hassabis was jointly awarded the Nobel Prize in Chemistry alongside John M. Jumper and David Baker for their breakthrough work on predicting protein structures using the AI model AlphaFold.
- Prior to receiving the Chemistry Nobel, Hassabis won the Albert Lasker Award for Basic Medical Research in 2023, which is widely considered the "American Nobel" in medicine.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Demis Hassabis also win a Nobel Prize in Medicine??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Demis Hassabis also win a Nobel Prize in Medicine? resolve?
- Will Demis Hassabis also win a Nobel Prize in Medicine? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2033.
- How is Will Demis Hassabis also win a Nobel Prize in Medicine? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria